Democrat John Fetterman tops Republican Mehmet Oz among Pennsylvania voters by 45-41%, in a Fox News survey released Wednesday. That 4-point edge is within the poll’s margin of sampling error, and down from an 11-point advantage in late July. It is notable neither candidate receives majority support.
Three percent favor independent candidate Everett Stern and 11% back someone else, are unsure, or won’t vote.
A large 82% majority feels certain they will vote, rating themselves a 10 out of 10, and among this subgroup, Fetterman is also ahead by 4 points, 48-44%.
JOHN FETTERMAN WIPES BLACK LIVES MATTER SECTION FROM CAMPAIGN SITE AMID ATTACKS OVER CRIME
The survey also finds that since July, an increasing number express concern over Fetterman’s health, while a decreasing share worries about Oz’s carpetbagger status. Still, the health issue is the lesser worry of the two.
Fetterman returned to the campaign trail in August after suffering a stroke May 13.
Some 34% are extremely or very worried he may not be healthy enough to do the job of senator effectively, up from 23% in July. That 11-point increase is driven by greater concern among Republicans (+23 points) and independents (+19).
For Oz, 43% of voters worry he’s not familiar enough with the state to serve effectively, down from 52%. That 9-point decrease comes from fewer Democrats (-6 points), Republicans (-9), and independents (-16) expressing concern.
Sixty-one percent of those supporting Fetterman do so enthusiastically. While that’s less than the 68% who felt that way in July, it’s far more than the 38% of Oz’s backers who are enthusiastic. Most of the former celebrity doctor’s support comes from voters who have reservations about him (34%) or dislike their other options (26%).
Overall, more Democrats support Fetterman (87%) than Republicans go for Oz (83%) — largely because GOP women (80%) are less supportive than GOP men (86%). Among Republicans, by a 17-point margin, more of those who support the MAGA movement (92%) back Oz than those who consider themselves everyday GOPers (75%).
Fetterman is up by 18 points among women, 23 points among voters under age 45, 6 points among suburban voters, and 4 points among independents. Oz is ahead by 11 points among men, 15 points among White men without a college degree, and 4 points among voters 45 and over.
White evangelical Christians favor Oz by 42 points, while candidate preference splits among White Catholics.
“The Pennsylvania Senate seat remains perhaps the best opportunity for a Democratic pick-up this cycle,” says Republican pollster Daron Shaw, who conducts the Fox News survey with Democrat Chris Anderson. “While Oz has closed the gap by rallying GOP support, he still needs to convince wavering Republicans and independents that he’s up to the task.”
Oz and Fetterman are competing for the seat of retiring Republican Sen. Pat Toomey.
President Biden won Pennsylvania by just over one percentage point in 2020, while former President Trump won by less than one point in 2016.
The top three issues in the Senate race are inflation (21%), preservation of American democracy (21%), and abortion (15%).
Inflation is number one among Republicans and independents, followed by preservation of democracy, border security, and abortion. Inflation comes in third among Democrats, as they put preserving democracy first, followed by abortion, and inflation.
Inflation voters prefer Oz (by 52 points), while those prioritizing preservation of U.S. democracy (+52) and abortion (+58) go for Fetterman.
More of those who are happy the Supreme Court overturned the Roe v. Wade abortion decision say they are certain to vote in the election than those who are angry about it (88% vs. 82%).
In addition, most who are happy Roe was overturned favor Oz (83%), while most feeling angry back Fetterman (80%).
The difference is that by a 22-point margin, more voters are angry (48%) than happy (26%) about the decision. Among the one in five who are indifferent, Oz is ahead by more than 3-to-1.
“Oz is very much in this race, but he is dependent on consolidating Republican women behind him,” says Anderson. “And for some of those women it will come down to if they are more concerned about the effect of the Senate race on abortion or inflation.”
Among Republican women, the issue priorities are inflation (22%), abortion (16%), U.S. democracy (15%), and border security (13%).
In the Pennsylvania governor’s race, a slim majority backs Democrat Josh Shapiro (51%) over Republican Doug Mastriano (40%). That’s mostly unchanged since July (50-40%).
Nine percent of those backing Oz in the Senate race cross party lines to support Shapiro.
Among the subgroup of those most certain to vote, Shapiro receives 53% to Mastriano’s 42%.
Compared to Mastriano, there’s less concern over Shapiro’s positions on the issues and greater enthusiasm among his supporters.
Fifty-one percent of those backing Mastriano support him enthusiastically, while 27% have reservations. For Shapiro, 62% back him enthusiastically and 19% hesitate.
By a 14-point margin, more voters are concerned Mastriano’s (49%) views are too extreme than feel that way about Shapiro’s views (35%).
Sitting Democratic Gov. Tom Wolf is term-limited.
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Conducted September 22-26, 2022, under the joint direction of Beacon Research (D) and Shaw & Company (R), this Fox News surveys include interviews with 1,008 Pennsylvania registered voters randomly selected from a statewide voter file and who spoke with live interviewers on both landlines and cellphones. The total sample has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus three percentage points.
Fox News’ Victoria Balara contributed to this report.
